Modeling delays and cancellation probabilities to support strategic simulations

Avijit Mukherjee, David J. Lovell, Michael O. Ball, Amedeo R. Odoni, and Gregory Zerbib

Proceedings of the 2005 Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Baltimore, MD, 2005.

ABSTRACT

Modeling delays and cancellation probabilities is important for strategic-level decision support tools in aviation planning. In this paper, we introduce models for average delays and cancellation probabilities that distinguish between carriers but do not rely on proprietary information. The models were developed for a strategic simulation to determine the effects of congestion management schemes at LaGuardia Airport, including government regulations, administrative controls, and congestion prices. We also demonstrate the use of the models to help determine the appropriate number of hourly slots to offer in a hypothetical slot auction.