Flight delay propagation impact on strategic air traffic flow management.
Andrew M. Churchill, David J. Lovell, and Michael O. Ball
Transportation Research Record 2177, pp. 105–113.
ABSTRACT
Despite recent decreases in air traffic, congestion is still at higher levels
than it was several years ago. Because of this congestion and expected
increases in traffic, strategic planning for daily operations in the air traffic
system has taken on an increasingly important role. Weather typically
has a strong influence in developing such plans, as it leads to degraded
airport and airspace capacity, which in turn causes delays. However,
many reported delays are induced by these initial effects. Thus, it is
essential to understand the scope and impact of propagation of flight
delays in a strategic setting. In this paper, delay propagation is examined
over several years in spatial and temporal terms. Two models, each
incorporating different levels of fidelity and flexibility, are applied in an
effort to examine this phenomenon. The first model tracks individual aircraft
as they operate several flights and explicitly separates the new delay
from the propagated delay. The second model operates at a higher level
by relating earlier and later delays at several airports. Results identifying
the various impacts of delay propagation are reported for several airports
and scenarios, and recommendations are made for incorporating
these models and their output into strategic planning efforts.